After a period of limited activity, President Donald Trump’s political operation has begun significant spending ahead of the upcoming elections. With less than six weeks until Election Day, the allocation of these funds indicates a narrowing Senate map for Republicans.
In Texas, where Democrats have not won a statewide race in over 30 years, Trump's MAGA Inc. super PAC has reported spending $15 million since early September to support a Republican-held seat, as per Federal Election Commission filings. This includes $10 million earlier this month aimed at boosting Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general and the GOP nominee, while also attacking his Democratic opponent, James Talarico, along with an additional $5 million in television and digital advertisements over the weekend.
In North Carolina, where Republicans are defending an open seat, the No Going Back PAC Inc., one of two new super PACs reportedly funded by MAGA Inc., has not made any ad reservations for October, according to AdImpact, an ad-tracking firm. In Georgia, a key Senate race where Republicans have a chance to win a Democratic-held seat, only a few hundred thousand dollars’ worth of airtime has been booked so far for October.
This represents a significant decrease from earlier spending levels in both states. While there is still potential for additional airtime bookings, the current figures do not account for direct mail or canvassing efforts. The reduction in spending may indicate a decline in confidence regarding Republican Senate candidates in these states or a strategic decision to rely on other GOP groups.
Conversely, the No Going Back PAC is continuing to invest heavily in efforts to flip Democratic-held Senate seats in Michigan and New Hampshire, as well as to maintain Republican-held seats in Ohio and Alaska, according to ad spending data.
These spending choices provide insight into Trump’s priorities for the midterm elections. By the end of August, MAGA Inc., managed by Trump’s external political team, had utilized only a small portion of its $400 million budget to support other Republicans, raising questions among GOP members about the timing and strategy for utilizing these funds.
The current spending patterns emerge as Republicans’ financial advantages have not translated into political momentum. The Republican Party and its primary outside spending groups have reported a cash advantage of approximately $500 million compared to their Democratic counterparts. However, Democrats are reportedly outpacing Republicans in grassroots fundraising across numerous races and lead the generic congressional ballot by about 7 points, according to polling aggregator FiftyPlusOne, which surveys voter preferences between unnamed Democratic and Republican candidates in House districts.
Much of the funding is being funneled through the No Going Back PAC and another new organization, Safety and Affordability PAC Inc., both of which were established in early September. As of Friday, these two PACs and MAGA Inc. collectively have aired or reserved at least $168 million in advertisements supporting Republicans in Senate and House races nationwide, with MAGA Inc. contributing only $18 million thus far. Neither of the super PACs reportedly funded by MAGA Inc. has disclosed its donors to the FEC, resulting in the onscreen disclaimers featuring their names instead of MAGA Inc.’s, which may benefit Republicans who prefer not to be associated with Trump amid recent polls indicating his low approval ratings.
Partial expenditure reports from No Going Back PAC reveal that tens of millions of dollars have been allocated for television and digital advertisements, as well as direct mail, in Senate races in North Carolina, Texas, Michigan, and other locations. The group is also active in House races, aiming to unseat a Democratic incumbent in New York while defending vulnerable GOP-held seats in Iowa, California, Nebraska, North Carolina, and other states.
However, the spending linked to MAGA Inc. represents only a segment of a broader Republican strategy. Since January 2025, GOP campaigns, super PACs, political nonprofits, and other organizations have expended nearly $4 billion on advertisements, according to AdImpact.
A Republican strategist involved in midterm races commented, "MAGA Inc. spending is additive. It’s not going to be determinative to the results, but it’s helpful. Republicans would much rather have it than not." The strategist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, provided a candid evaluation of the president’s political spending.
The strategist indicated that at least $1 billion is available for the final stretch across MAGA Inc., leading super PACs aligned with GOP leadership, and other Republican groups. "There’s more cash, more resources than ever being deployed across the Republican ecosystem," the strategist noted. "It’s an ever-evolving, ever-moving target in the last 40 days before the election."
If Democrats perform as well as current polls suggest, this election cycle could provide insights into whether unlimited financial resources can still secure victories in close races.