Seven armed groups in Ethiopia have formed an alliance against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government, raising concerns about a potential return to civil war. This escalation follows intensified fighting between Ethiopia's federal army and forces from the northern region of Tigray, which could threaten the peace agreement established in 2022 that ended a two-year conflict.
The new coalition, known as the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, includes the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Amhara Fano National Movement, and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), among others. Each group has its own history and objectives but shares the common goal of removing Abiy Ahmed from power.
Tensions have been exacerbated by unresolved disputes from the previous war, particularly regarding the control of western Tigray, which has seen clashes between Tigrayan and Amhara forces. The TPLF, which was once the dominant political force in Ethiopia, has seen its influence diminish since Abiy took office in 2018, leading to deteriorating relations and the outbreak of war in November 2020.
Despite a peace agreement signed in Pretoria, South Africa, in November 2022, which ended the full-scale conflict, tensions remain high. The TPLF and Amhara Fano National Movement, now allied against the government, previously fought on opposing sides.
Recent fighting has spread from Tigray into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions, with each side accusing the other of initiating the latest clashes. Reports indicate that Tigrayan forces have taken control of several airports, disrupting civilian flights, while the federal government claims to have killed over 270 rebel fighters, a figure that has not been independently verified.
The African Union has called for an immediate ceasefire and renewed negotiations, while analysts suggest that while the situation is serious, it has not yet escalated into a full-scale civil war. The potential for regional escalation remains, particularly given Eritrea's past involvement in the conflict and ongoing tensions with the Ethiopian government.