<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Palantir cofounder <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/peter-thiel/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Peter Thiel</a> predicted there is a 50% chance that a socialist candidate will win the presidency in 2028 against the Republican nominee, whether that is Vice President <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/jd-vance/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">JD Vance</a> or Secretary of State <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/marco-rubio/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Marco Rubio</a>.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In an interview on the <em>MD MEETS — Essential Talks with Mathias Dopfner</em> podcast, Thiel stated, “I’m still a Vance partisan. I worry that it will be very hard for either candidate to win.”</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Thiel, a significant donor who contributed $15 million to support Vance’s 2022 Senate campaign in Ohio, raised a question regarding the Democratic candidate. He suggested that a socialist front-runner could perform well in 2028 if the <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/democratic-party/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Democratic Party</a> overperforms in the <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/midterm-elections/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">midterm elections</a> this fall.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">“Obviously, in a close election, a center-left candidate is probably better,” Thiel said. “If it’s not a close election, it probably doesn’t matter. And I think there’s a decent chance that it will not even be close. If the Republicans get wiped out in the midterms this fall, then the Democrats will think that they will win no matter what in 2028. And therefore, there probably will not be as strong a firewall … you won’t pull out all the stops to prevent a democratic socialist from winning.”</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Thiel expressed his belief that the Democrats will perform well enough in the midterms that they will be indifferent to a center-left versus far-left presidential candidate, leading to an open field for the 2028 election.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">He recounted a conversation with political scientist Francis Fukuyama, who expressed skepticism about the likelihood of a socialist winning the presidency in 2028. Thiel quoted Fukuyama as saying, “No way, can never happen.” Thiel disagreed, stating, “I don’t think history is set like that.”</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">When asked if a socialist win is the most likely outcome, Thiel clarified that it is “not the most likely” result but believes there is a “50% chance,” which he considers “pretty high.”</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Thiel’s comments come amid a rise in the socialist movement in American politics, highlighted by the election of <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/new-york-city/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">New York City</a> Mayor <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/zohran-mamdani/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Zohran Mamdani</a> last year, with many socialists now running for <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/congress/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Congress</a>.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Notable candidates include Darializa Avila Chevalier, running for New York’s 13th Congressional District, and Angie Nixon, who is challenging Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL) in November. <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/abdul-el-sayed/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Abdul el Sayed</a>, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Michigan, is often associated with the socialist movement by Republicans, though he is not an official member of the <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/democratic-socialists-of-america/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Democratic Socialists of America</a>.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Rep. <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/alexandria-ocasio-cortez/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez</a> (D-NY) has recently renewed her membership with the left-wing organization as she considers her political future. She has been mentioned as a potential 2028 presidential contender for the Democratic Party, but she could also run for Sen. Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) seat if she chooses.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">It remains uncertain whether a socialist candidate will emerge in 2028 as Thiel predicted, but socialism appears to be gaining traction in the United States. A <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/714653/socialism-positive-rating-tops-first-time.aspx" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Gallup survey</a> published Wednesday indicated that 43% of the public views socialism positively, the highest since Gallup began polling on economic concepts in 2010, up from 39% last year.</p>