WASHINGTON — Expectations were low entering President Trump’s meetings with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, this week, after officials on both sides tempered hopes for a breakthrough. The summit’s lack of substance surprised many observers of U.S.-China relations.
The meeting was designed to project a new phase of managed competition between the two superpowers, suggesting that Washington and Beijing can demonstrate responsible leadership. However, a closer examination revealed significant challenges in their bilateral relationship.
Industry pleas and bipartisan calls for Trump to negotiate a meaningful framework on artificial intelligence were largely ignored. A trade truce between the two sides was extended for only two months. Trump reiterated his warning to Xi not to assist Iran amid ongoing U.S. military actions there, a caution that has reportedly gone unheeded, with substantial Chinese shipments arriving in Tehran.
Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, stated, “The U.S.-China relationship has settled into a managed stalemate. It has stabilized at the top without stabilizing underneath.”
During the summit, Xi Jinping emphasized the need for artificial intelligence to remain “under human control” as both nations compete for technological dominance.
Singleton remarked, “The elaborate pageantry matters precisely because there is still relatively little substantive progress to showcase.” He noted that Trump seems to value personal relationships as an end goal, while Xi utilizes his relationship with Trump to influence U.S. decisions and prevent competitive actions.
The summit followed a familiar pattern for Trump, emphasizing personal relationships in diplomacy while simplifying complex statecraft. Trump’s gestures, such as patting Xi on the back, were seen as inappropriate in Chinese culture but reflected his focus on personal rapport.
Trump showcased various renovations to the White House during Xi's visit, including a new helipad and changes to the Rose Garden. He also displayed a mocking image of former President Biden, which drew criticism online.
The visit included a dinner attended by prominent tech executives like Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Mark Zuckerberg, highlighting the interest in how both countries plan to regulate artificial intelligence. Xi's call for AI to remain under human control reflects concerns in China about managing transformative technologies.
Despite the ceremonial aspects of the visit, there was a notable alignment in visions between the U.S. and Chinese leaders, emphasizing competition while avoiding conflict. Both leaders stressed the importance of dialogue, with Xi referencing the Thucydides trap, which posits that rising powers often clash with established ones.
David Ochmanek, a senior researcher at Rand, noted, “I don’t think anyone will be surprised if there are no significant agreements.” He suggested that Xi sees little reason to compromise with the U.S. at this time.
The two leaders are scheduled to meet again later this year at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, China, and the Group of 20 summit in Miami.
Xi stated, “We do not need to avoid mentioning competition, but our competition should be a healthy one, and should be kept within bounds.” He emphasized the need for regular dialogue between their militaries to prevent crises and conflicts, asserting that the Thucydides trap can be overcome.