NEW YORK — Estonia's Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna stated that his country’s intelligence does not indicate that Russia is preparing for a full-scale invasion of NATO. In an interview on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York City, Tsahkna remarked, "We have more and more this kind of panic in Europe that Russia will invade and will be full-scale aggressive against NATO and Europe and the Baltic states, Poland. But we don’t see it." Estonia shares a roughly 180-mile border with Russia and has been a vocal member of NATO regarding threats from Moscow under President Vladimir Putin. Tsahkna differentiated between conventional attack preparations and ongoing campaigns of drone incursions, sabotage, cyberattacks, and other provocations attributed to Russia.
Tsahkna noted, "Our intelligence, we see very, very deep into Russia, we don’t see any change. We don’t see that Russia is preparing a full-scale invasion or aggression. The other side of our borders is pretty empty." He compared the current situation to a decade ago when approximately 120,000 Russian troops were positioned near Estonia's borders, stating, "It’s empty" today.
His comments come amid European officials addressing Russian airspace violations and suspected hybrid attacks, including a recent incident where a Russian military helicopter crossed into Polish airspace. Poland’s military described the incursion as a test of its air defenses.
European and NATO officials have warned that Russia could rebuild military capabilities that may pose a direct threat to the alliance in the future. Estonia’s intelligence service previously reported no immediate Russian intention to attack a NATO member, but acknowledged that Moscow’s military reforms could enhance its long-term capabilities. Tsahkna emphasized that the immediate threat lies in Russia's provocations and hybrid attacks that do not cross NATO’s Article 5 threshold, stating, "What Russia is doing now is waging these attacks, which are not crossing Article 5. It’s sabotage attacks, terror attacks."
He added, "The main purpose for Putin is to play with the Western part of the fear of escalation. He’s trying to divide the Western parts of the world. Divide the unity, divide this kind of consensus." Estonia has faced GPS interference, cyberattacks, and disinformation attributed to Russia, with Tsahkna reporting approximately 40,000 cyberattacks last year.
Tsahkna called for NATO to adopt a more flexible response to attacks below the collective-defense threshold, suggesting that the alliance should utilize sanctions, public attribution, and political responses. He remarked, "Putin wants to boil Europe and western part of the world as a frog. Turning on the heat piece by piece is a test of us."
He recounted a previous incident where Russian fighter jets violated Estonian airspace, leading to consultations under NATO’s Article 4. Tsahkna noted that NATO may need more cost-effective methods to address drone incursions rather than relying solely on expensive fighter aircraft.
On the situation in Ukraine, Tsahkna advocated for increased pressure on Russia, arguing that economic and battlefield losses could prompt Putin to engage in serious negotiations. He stated, "What we see, and I also visited Ukraine last week, is that we need to put more pressure on Russia, because Putin understands only very clear language through strength."
Tsahkna highlighted Ukraine’s increasing ability to strike deep inside Russia as a pressure point on the Kremlin, stating, "If Putin is under heavier pressure, and also Ukraine is delivering more deep-strike capabilities and attacks, there will be a momentum when Putin may really start some kind of ceasefire or energy ceasefire, or real talks."
He remarked on the efforts of former President Donald Trump to seek an end to the war, suggesting that Putin has used diplomatic processes to buy time. Tsahkna concluded that while Ukraine’s deep strikes are weakening Russia economically, there has been no significant change in the situation. He also mentioned that Estonia has been assured of the continued presence of U.S. forces in the region, which he views as a vital component of deterrence on NATO’s eastern flank, stating, "U.S. troops are keeping the peace in our region. The flag of the troops is so important to give the message to President Putin about the red lines between Russia and NATO."