Poll Shows Lula Leading Bolsonaro by Two Points Ahead of Brazilian Election

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has a two-percentage-point lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, his main challenger, according to a Datafolha poll released on September 25, 2026. Lula is projected to receive 47 percent of the vote compared to 45 percent for Bolsonaro in a simulated run-off. The margin of error for the poll is 2 percentage points, indicating that the result represents a technical tie. In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 40 percent, followed by Bolsonaro at 36 percent, Augusto Cury at 5 percent, Ronaldo Caiado at 4 percent, and Renan Santos at 3 percent. A previous Datafolha poll had shown Lula leading Bolsonaro by 46 percent to 44 percent. Senator Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 election defeat to Lula. Lula is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term as Brazil’s president. If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of valid votes in the first round, the two frontrunners will advance to a run-off. Datafolha surveyed 2,002 people between September 22 and 23. Two other polls released earlier this week showed similar results, with a Quaest poll indicating Bolsonaro at 42 percent and Lula at 41 percent, and a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showing Lula at 46 percent and Bolsonaro at 45 percent in a potential run-off.