Canadian PM Carney Discusses Preparedness for Potential U.S. Invasion Amid Trade Tensions

<p>Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stated that he prepared for the "extreme tail risk" of a U.S. invasion of Canada due to recent trade tensions. Carney made these comments in an interview with The New York Times published on September 23, 2026, noting that he considered this possibility after President Donald Trump referred to Canada as the 51st state.</p><p>Carney emphasized the importance of risk management in his role, stating, "I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk. That’s just risk management. That’s not a base case." He argued that it would be irresponsible not to consider such risks.</p><p>Trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada have escalated over the past year, with Trump imposing increased tariffs and Canada responding similarly. In a video statement earlier this month, Carney acknowledged that Canada has become overly reliant on its economic relationship with the U.S. over the past four decades.</p><p>Carney remarked, "The past 40 years has been a period of deeper economic integration with the United States. Truth is, it was easy business, but it meant we relied too much on one economic partner. It’s clear that time is over." He indicated that his administration's focus has been on development and diversification rather than returning to previous economic dependencies.</p><p>In response to reports of Canada potentially joining the European Union as an associate member, Trump dismissed the idea, stating that the U.S. could impose heavy tariffs on Europe if he perceived such a move as hostile. Trump said, "I think it's laughable. If they do that, if I think it's at all a hostile act, I will put very serious tariffs or stop trading with Europe on many things."</p><p>He added, "If Europe does that with a bad intention — if it's a good intention, that's fine — if it's a bad intention, we'll put very heavy tariffs on Europe."</p>