Experts suggest that the upcoming summit between United States President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping may not yield significant announcements but is necessary to rebuild trust. As Trump welcomes Xi with a personal greeting at the airport, followed by a state banquet and military flyover, analysts caution against high expectations for concrete agreements.
The US and China have been engaged in a trade conflict since Trump's first term, which began with tariffs on certain industrial imports. China responded with tariffs on various US exports, including soybeans, pork, and electric vehicles. These trade measures continued under President Joe Biden, who also implemented restrictions on chip exports.
Tensions escalated during Trump's second term, particularly with the introduction of new tariffs, including threats of 200 percent levies last year. In retaliation, China indicated it would respond with similar measures and restricted exports of critical minerals essential for manufacturing products like laptops, cellphones, and renewable energy technologies.
Despite these tensions, both nations have taken steps back from the brink following their meeting in late October in Busan during the APEC summit in South Korea. Currently, US tariffs average 36.5 percent, while China's tariffs on US goods average 31 percent.
Reza Hasmath, an academic faculty adviser at The China Institute at the University of Alberta, stated, "This is not a bargaining summit. It’s a stabilising summit." Other agenda items for the summit include cooperation on artificial intelligence safety, Iran, and Taiwan.
Mary E. Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics, noted that the summit aims to continue the truce established in Busan, which led to China resuming its supply of critical minerals. The US is interested in accelerating these deliveries, which may prompt discussions about a Board of Trade mechanism to reduce tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods from both countries.
Lovely expressed that the best-case scenario would involve the two nations beginning to liberalize trade on non-sensitive goods and expediting the flow of critical minerals, indicating a normalization of relations. Conversely, the worst-case scenario would be a failure to find common ground.
Experts also highlighted potential challenges regarding safety regulations around AI and a coordinated slowdown in the sector. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has suggested a dialogue between the US and China and an AI hotline for reporting incidents that could threaten national security. However, the lack of mutual trust may hinder substantial progress in this area, according to Dexter Tiff Roberts, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub.
Tiff Roberts also noted that US restrictions on advanced chip sales to China and the US government's rhetoric about AI supremacy contribute to the existing distrust. China, on the other hand, seeks to promote its governance model and views AI as a tool for soft power.
Regarding Iran, while China does not supply weapons to Tehran, it has sold dual-use components and historically purchased significant oil quantities from Iran. Experts suggest that while China has reduced these purchases recently, this could change as the US-Iran conflict evolves.
On Taiwan, which China considers part of its territory, the situation remains tense. Taiwan has been awaiting US approval for a $14 billion arms sale. Tiff Roberts remarked that while Trump is unlikely to abandon Taiwan, his unpredictable nature makes the situation concerning for Taiwan.
Despite the expectation of minimal concrete outcomes from the three-day summit, experts agree on the importance of the meeting for both leaders. Tiff Roberts emphasized the significance of the US-China trade relationship for the global economy. As Trump approaches the US midterm elections, he seeks to project an image of international leadership, while China aims to improve its trade relations amid domestic economic challenges. Ultimately, Hasmath from The China Institute summarized the summit as likely being a "horse and pony show" with limited meaningful announcements focused on rebuilding trust.