The United States and China are engaged in a competitive race to advance artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. US President Donald Trump has openly expressed his ambitions regarding AI and identified China as the primary competitor. In contrast, Chinese President Xi Jinping has not made similar statements but is believed to share a competitive perspective. Rebecca Arcesati from the Mercator Institute for China Studies noted that China views AI as a means to enhance its power. Despite the lack of public emphasis from Xi, AI has been a key focus of China's technological strategy for over a decade. Trump has prioritized achieving AI superiority over concerns regarding the potential risks of the technology, which he has previously labeled as "a hoax." China's foreign ministry has cautioned that narratives of threat and confrontation could impede global AI governance and has called for international cooperation to ensure AI benefits all nations.
As the two leaders prepare to meet, AI is expected to be a significant topic of discussion, with implications for global dynamics. Both countries are recognized as leaders in AI, but the assessment of who is ahead varies based on the criteria used. American firms dominate in developing frontier models, with companies like Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI leading in performance benchmarks. Research from Stanford University indicates that a model from China's DeepSeek briefly matched a top US model in February 2025, while Anthropic's model led by a margin of 2.7% as of March 2026.
The US advantage is partly attributed to substantial investments in AI companies, which are essential for developing the infrastructure necessary for training advanced models. OpenAI's CEO, Sam Altman, has advocated for a coordinated slowdown in advanced AI development. The US economy has seen significant growth, partly driven by the success and profitability of AI companies, which may explain Trump's emphasis on AI as crucial for national success.
China faces challenges due to restrictions on US companies that limit access to advanced microchips, which are vital for cutting-edge AI development. Nevertheless, both countries continue to release new AI models regularly, and the definition of "winning" the AI race remains ambiguous. Many companies are pursuing the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI), a theoretical AI capable of human-like learning and reasoning.
The Chinese AI sector has focused on producing open weight models, which are freely available for modification, contrasting with the proprietary models favored by US firms. Despite being behind in some areas, Chinese models are rapidly evolving, with popular models like Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 performing closely to frontier models while being accessible to users.
China's strategy emphasizes widespread deployment of AI technology across its economy, with analyst Lizzi Lee from the Asia Society Policy Institute noting that the US may lead in frontier development, but China could gain significant economic and geopolitical advantages by making AI affordable and widely available. Additionally, China's access to low-cost electricity provides an advantage in the energy-intensive AI sector.
China has also emerged as the largest manufacturer of robots, with over two million robots in operation, according to the International Federation of Robotics. The country leads in humanoid robot production, accounting for over 90% of global shipments in the first half of the year, as reported by Chatham House. Analysts have observed that Chinese AI developers have demonstrated resilience and innovation despite the limitations imposed by the shortage of advanced American chips. However, US officials have accused Chinese developers of closing the gap through techniques like distillation, which allows them to learn from more advanced models.
China's foreign ministry has stated that its AI development is driven by a vision of collaboration and shared benefits. While both nations are in competition, their approaches to AI safety differ significantly. Concerns about AI posing existential risks to humanity have been raised in the US, while Chinese researchers are more focused on the potential misuse of AI and cybersecurity threats. Trump has asserted that the US has sufficient regulations in place and that the only necessary oversight for AI is a "high IQ" president.
As the US seeks to maintain its lead in AI, Washington has prioritized innovation and reduced regulatory barriers. In contrast, China has adopted a more cautious and coordinated approach, implementing guidelines on data usage and algorithms to address safety concerns. Despite calls for international cooperation on AI governance, the two countries have not yet established a clear framework for addressing the technology's risks. Previous cooperation on existential threats like nuclear weapons was based on a shared understanding, which is currently lacking in the context of AI. Trump has dismissed proposals for an industry-wide slowdown, arguing that such measures could allow Chinese developers to catch up.
Ahead of the summit between Trump and Xi, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng discussed the possibility of creating a notification mechanism for significant AI incidents. While Trump's recent rhetoric towards China has been more confrontational, the inclusion of AI in the summit agenda is viewed as a positive step by policy analysts. Leia Wang from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace emphasized the importance of avoiding an unhealthy narrative of competition that could exacerbate tensions in the AI sector.