Analysis of Current Global Political Dynamics

<p>Donald Trump provided a summary of his worldview in an address to the United Nations General Assembly on September 22, 2026. He defended the American takeover of Venezuelan oil, stating, "To the victor belongs the spoils," and presented Iran with a choice between accepting his terms and facing dire consequences.</p><p>These remarks indicate a shift in world politics towards a might-makes-right approach. Trump is one of several leaders, including Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, contributing to a departure from the post-World War II international order. While American policy may change when Trump leaves office in January 2029, Putin and Xi are likely to remain in power for the foreseeable future.</p><p>A new American president may struggle to restore the previous order or establish a better one, facing the challenge of halting the decline of international norms.</p><p>The concept of international order is often debated. Many leaders from the global South and Western critics argue that the United States has not consistently adhered to a rules-based system, citing military interventions and power imbalances in international institutions. However, the failures of the old order do not negate the significance of its constraints.</p><p>In his book, <em>A World Restored</em>, Henry Kissinger posited that a stable international order relies on a consensus among major powers regarding acceptable foreign policy aims and methods. Governments can compete and violate rules without seeking to overturn the system itself, but tensions arise when a major power becomes dissatisfied with existing limits and adopts a revolutionary foreign policy.</p><p>Historically, major powers did not typically conquer neighboring territories under the old international order. The global trading system was based on reciprocity, tariffs were low, and markets were relatively open. The United States, despite being the strongest country, exercised enough restraint to allow its allies to develop as genuine partners rather than subordinates.</p><p>In recent years, particularly since the pandemic, the consensus on acceptable conduct has deteriorated. Putin's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 marked a significant escalation, with combined military casualties reaching approximately 2 million. European governments have accused Russia of engaging in sabotage, cyberattacks, and other aggressive actions. North Korea has also intervened, with various nations aligning with either Russia or Ukraine.</p><p>Under Xi, China has disrupted the global trading system by leveraging state power to dominate advanced manufacturing and reduce imports while increasing exports. This has resulted in significant excess capacity and competitive pricing that challenges other countries, leading many to adopt protectionist measures.</p><p>Since his second term began in 2025, Trump has shifted American power against allies, imposing high tariffs on Canada, Japan, South Korea, India, and the European Union, and using threats to secure investment pledges. He has suggested controversial actions regarding Canada and Greenland and pressured Ukraine regarding its mineral wealth during an ongoing conflict. Under Trump's leadership, the U.S. has positioned itself as a dominant power seeking transactional gains rather than as a supporter of democratic alliances.</p><p>Trump's actions have eroded the constraints that made American leadership acceptable to many countries. Reports indicate he may meet with Xi and Putin at the Asia Pacific Economic Summit in Shenzhen in November, potentially signaling the formal end of the old international order.</p><p>The current international environment resembles a prewar period, though a major conflict is not guaranteed. If one occurs, historians may find the causes evident. Major powers are increasing military capabilities and advancing in drone warfare and artificial intelligence. Trump's reluctance to commit to alliances, particularly in Europe, raises concerns that aggressors may act without fearing U.S. repercussions. Meanwhile, America's rivals are increasingly collaborating on military production and technology.</p><p>This shift is influenced by generational and psychological factors, as leaders like Putin, Xi, and Trump are often described as elderly, sometimes erratic, and driven by nationalistic ideologies. The current moment may feel like a critical opportunity for these leaders to reshape the world.</p><p>Future American presidents may promise to create a new international order, but Xi and Putin are unlikely to accept the constraints that the U.S. seeks to reinstate. While American allies may welcome a more internationalist U.S. foreign policy, they may doubt its sustainability beyond the next election.</p><p>Rather than making unattainable promises, future presidential candidates should be honest with the American public. The current international order appears to be ending, and the next president will face one of the most challenging international environments since 1945. Their goal will be to stabilize world affairs and lay the groundwork for a better future, even if immediate improvements are not feasible.</p>