Los Angeles Councilmember Nithya Raman has taken a significant lead over incumbent Mayor Karen Bass in the latest poll conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times. The poll, released on September 23, 2026, indicates that 39% of likely voters support Raman, while 28% favor Bass. A notable 33% of voters remain undecided as the November 3 election approaches, with mail-in ballots set to be sent out starting October 1.
Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS Poll, noted that Raman's lead represents her strongest showing yet, as she previously trailed Bass in most polls during the primary campaign. In the June 2 primary, Raman received 29% of the vote compared to Bass's 34%. The poll also revealed that Bass has a high unfavorability rating of 63%, with only 28% of voters viewing her favorably.
The survey, which sampled 2,150 likely city voters between September 15 and September 20, has a margin of error of approximately 3 percentage points. DiCamillo pointed out that the high number of undecided voters is unusual for this stage of the race. Many of these undecided voters previously supported Spencer Pratt, who received 26% of the vote in the primary but is no longer in the race. Among those Pratt voters who have made a decision, 22% now favor Bass and 16% favor Raman.
Demographically, Raman has a strong advantage among younger voters, with 66% of those aged 18 to 29 supporting her, compared to just 4% for Bass. Raman also leads among voters aged 30 to 39 (64% to 12%) and 40 to 49 (50% to 18%). Bass, however, leads among voters aged 65 and older, garnering 41% support compared to Raman's 21%.
The poll indicates that Bass's negative favorability ratings may be linked to her handling of the 2025 Palisades fire, with 56% of likely voters rating her response as poor or very poor. The most pressing issues for voters include city infrastructure, homelessness, crime and public safety, and affordable housing. Geographically, Raman leads in most areas of the city, with Bass only slightly ahead in South Los Angeles and the Harbor region.
Raman has gained momentum in recent weeks, receiving endorsements from key labor unions, while Bass has faced challenges related to rising homelessness and negative media coverage following the Lineage warehouse fire in Boyle Heights.