El Nino Expected to Cause Severe Drought in Asia, Impacting Global Food Security

BANTEN, Indonesia (AP) — Experts predict a record-breaking El Nino this year, which may lead to severe drought in Asia and extreme weather globally, potentially threatening food security for millions. El Nino is part of a natural climate cycle characterized by warming ocean temperatures, and this year's phenomenon is expected to result in drought, heat waves, flooding, and other climate-related disruptions in South America, Africa, and Asia. Southeast Asia, already facing an energy crisis due to the war in Iran, is particularly vulnerable. El Nino is contributing to wildfires across farmland, depleting water supplies for major cities, and negatively impacting fish catches in the region. Asian governments, already using financial reserves to address the war's effects on energy costs and fertilizer supplies, may struggle to manage the intensifying El Nino, which is forecast to peak in December. Paul Teng from Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute noted that El Nino is compounding existing problems. During El Nino years, sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are warmer than usual, altering global weather patterns. This year, ocean temperatures have already reached new records, according to Kareff Rafisura, chief of the Disaster Risk Reduction Division at the U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific. The U.K.'s national weather and climate service stated that this El Nino may be the strongest in living memory, with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimating a 69% chance that it will be the strongest recorded since 1950. The impact of El Nino is expected to jeopardize food security worldwide, potentially pushing at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027, according to the U.N. World Food Program. The most severe effects are anticipated in Central America and southern Africa, with significant impacts also expected in eastern Africa and South and Southeast Asia. In Southeast Asia, wildfires are affecting forests and peatlands in Indonesia, creating toxic haze. The water level of a major reservoir supplying Jakarta, the world's largest metropolis, is steadily declining. Hussen, a local resident, expressed concern over the need for alternative water supplies as the reservoir dries up. Erma Yulihastin from Indonesia's Research Center for Climate and Atmosphere warned that El Nino has only just begun its "super phase." The reduction in rainfall and rising temperatures are putting pressure on Southeast Asia's fisheries, a vital protein source. The Mekong River, which flows through six nations, is also facing disruptions from mining and hydropower dam construction. Kongmeng Ly from the Mekong River Commission highlighted the challenges faced by communities reliant on stable water levels for fishing and farming. The wet season in Southeast Asia typically runs from June to October, replenishing reservoirs and providing irrigation. Drought conditions may force farmers to delay planting, reduce acreage, or switch crops, according to Rafisura. Cutbacks in staple crops like rice and palm oil could have global repercussions, as India, Vietnam, and Thailand—top rice exporters—are among the nations likely to be severely affected. In Thailand, rice farmers are already facing challenges due to increased fuel and fertilizer costs. El Nino is also impacting Indonesia and Malaysia, which supply about 85% of the world's palm oil. Malaysia's prime minister has instructed the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security to find ways to mitigate El Nino's effects, expected to peak in November. Eddy Martono, chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, noted that a lack of rain could hinder fertilizer application, affecting national production. While the total economic impact of an extreme El Nino is difficult to quantify, past events have resulted in losses reaching trillions of dollars, according to HSBC's Global Investment Research. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that this El Nino could raise global food commodity prices by more than 15%. Rafisura emphasized that agricultural outcomes will significantly influence poverty levels in Southeast Asia and that the ability of countries to maintain production levels will have global implications.