Republican lawmakers are expressing concerns that the battleground map is widening as the midterm elections approach, potentially jeopardizing their slim majority. With the midterms less than two months away, senators from both parties are noting changes in states previously considered safe for Republicans. According to The Hill, some lawmakers attribute this shift to economic factors, particularly rising gas prices, which have reached a national average of $4.4786 per gallon, up from $3.1834 a year ago.
Senators from both parties indicate that Democratic candidates are gaining momentum due to these rising energy prices. Voters are reportedly attributing the increased costs to the military conflict with Iran, initiated by President Trump in February without prior Congressional authorization.
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) stated that Democrats see potential for “nine Senate pickups” and emphasized the need to allocate resources to maximize their chances of winning those seats.
An unnamed Republican senator voiced concerns about how rising prices could affect Republican prospects in the midterms, stating, “Energy prices are way too high. The war, people don’t like. And the real reason they don’t like the war is it’s making everything more expensive. Voters are not in a good mood. In farm states like Nebraska and Kansas, farmers are just irate about the beef issue, they’re irate about energy prices,” describing the situation as a “tough environment.”
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) also highlighted rising energy prices as a consequence of the situation in Iran and its impact on voters. She remarked, “This is what people are talking about. How do we address it? I think we have to recognize, yes, we have seen the prices of fuel and related products, diesel — other refined products, fertilizer, we have seen all that rise as a consequence of what we’re seeing in Iran.”
Murkowski added, “People are feeling it, and they don’t like it. And what kind of response are we seeing from the White House? Is there a recognition that there’s a connection here? If there is, I’m not hearing anybody enunciate it.”
Concerns about Midwestern state seats have also been raised, with some attributing challenges to trade policies that negatively affect farmers. Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD) commented, “Clearly beef is a critical issue for us. Our producers love the president, they consider him to be one of their own, and what he did in sending a message about increasing beef supplies in the United States by bringing in outside [foreign] beef really hurt them.”
Rounds noted that this dissatisfaction has affected the president’s ratings in regions that typically support him, stating, “They’re frustrated and they’re hurt.”
A recent survey from the Economist/YouGov indicates that respondents give Democrats a four-point advantage on economic issues, with 56 percent blaming inflation on the war in Iran. RealClearPolitics currently categorizes the seats in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Texas as toss-ups, while Florida, South Carolina, and Nebraska are leaning Republican. At the time of this writing, the Cook Political Report also considers Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Texas as toss-ups, with Georgia and North Carolina leaning Democratic and Nebraska and Kansas classified as “likely” Republican.