Texas 2026 Poll Shows Talarico and Paxton in Close Race, Abbott Leads Hinojosa

The September Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Texas poll indicates that 47% of voters support Democrat James Talarico and 46% support Republican Ken Paxton, with 4% undecided and 2% supporting Libertarian Ted Brown. Since August, Talarico has gained one point while Paxton has lost one point. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, stated, "Texas Hispanic voters, who broke for Trump in 2024, now break for Talarico by 15 points, 54% to 39%." He added that these voters disapprove of President Biden 53% to 41%, and 51% believe the state is on the wrong track. In the gubernatorial race, 49% support incumbent Republican Greg Abbott, while 46% support Democrat Gina Hinojosa, with 4% undecided and 2% supporting Libertarian Pat Dixon. Abbott's support has remained steady since August, while Hinojosa's support has increased from 45% to 46%. Talarico has a 48% favorable rating and a 42% unfavorable rating, while Paxton has a 40% favorable and 48% unfavorable rating. Governor Abbott's name recognition is divided, with 46% favorable and 47% unfavorable views. Hinojosa has a 42% favorable view and a 32% unfavorable view. Likely voters reported varying levels of awareness regarding the September Republican National Committee midterm convention, with 45% hearing a lot and 45% hearing a little. Of those who were aware, 51% stated the convention made them more excited to vote in November, while 47% said it had no impact. Notably, 59% of Republicans and 53% of Democrats reported increased excitement due to the convention, while 68% of independents said it made no impact. The economy remains the top issue for Texas voters at 36%, an increase of six points since August, followed by immigration (14%), education (12%), healthcare (11%), and threats to democracy (11%). Both Republicans and Democrats identified the economy as the primary issue, with 38% of Republicans and 37% of Democrats agreeing, compared to 30% of independents. The Emerson College Polling Texas survey was conducted from September 12-14, 2026, with a sample size of 1,000 likely voters and a credibility interval of +/- 3 percent. The data was weighted based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data, and responses were collected via a probability-based panel. The survey was conducted in English and included customized links to ensure valid responses.