Heathrow's third runway cannot be approved without changes to current climate policies, according to the Climate Change Committee (CCC). The CCC stated that expansion can proceed only if the aviation industry funds cleaner fuels and invests in carbon dioxide removal technologies. The committee indicated that making the industry pay could increase the cost of flying, with a return trip to Alicante potentially costing around £150 more by 2050, and a return to New York increasing by £400 in today's prices.
The expanded airport is projected to produce more carbon dioxide than any other single sector of the economy by 2050. Nigel Topping, chair of the CCC, emphasized that Heathrow expansion is not currently compatible with the UK's Net Zero target. He stated, "Government needs to ensure that the aviation industry takes responsibility for the emissions it creates and bears the costs of decarbonisation. Those conditions do not exist today."
While the CCC report cannot block a new runway, it urges the government to legislate for the aviation industry's long-term responsibility for emissions. The Department for Transport (DfT) mentioned that it would consider the CCC's advice alongside other responses to its ongoing consultation, which evaluates expansion against four criteria: economy, climate, air quality, and noise.
The £33 billion project aims to increase Heathrow's capacity to 150 million passengers annually, up from 85 million. A DfT spokesperson noted that any expansion must align with the country's climate targets, but it could contribute approximately £40 billion to the economy and support up to 60,000 local jobs.
The CCC has called for carbon-removal machines to be deployed to address over a third of emissions by 2050, although it noted that such technology is not yet available at scale. The committee believes that requiring the industry to cover the costs of emissions reduction is the fairest approach, suggesting that the cost increase for passengers would be manageable if distributed over time.
Tim Alderslade, chief executive of Airlines UK, criticized the CCC's approach, stating that while airlines support the net-zero target by 2050, the transition must remain affordable. He warned that the CCC's plan could make flying unaffordable for many and suggested that airspace reform and the scaling up of sustainable fuels are necessary solutions.
Dr. Lois Pennington from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research expressed skepticism about the CCC's advice, arguing that without significant technological advancements, the only way to meet carbon limits is to halt or reduce flying expansion. Despite the CCC's recommendations, the government has indicated its intention to proceed with the expansion. Chancellor John Healey recently stated that the economic case for the project is strong and will promote growth.
A formal vote in the House of Commons is required to approve the planning framework for Heathrow's expansion, which is expected later this year. Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Mayor of London Sadiq Khan have both voiced opposition to the third runway, citing concerns about its impact on investment and the environment. Local residents and councils have also expressed strong opposition, with approximately 750 homes facing demolition due to the expansion plans.