In the ongoing Swedish election, the centre-left opposition bloc has maintained a narrow lead as the far-right party experiences a decrease in support, with approximately 95 percent of the districts counted. The Swedish Election Authority reported on September 15, 2026, that the four opposition parties are projected to secure 176 seats in the 349-seat parliament, known as the Riksdag, while the current conservative-led government and its supporters are expected to hold 173 seats.
Results may remain unclear until early votes and overseas ballots are counted on Wednesday. If the left-leaning bloc is declared victorious, the process of forming a government could be prolonged due to ideological differences among its parties. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, who has been in office since 2022, is seeking a second term with a centre-right coalition that includes the Sweden Democrats, a party with historical ties to neo-Nazi groups. He may continue in office if the left-wing bloc achieves a slim majority but fails to establish a government.
The Sweden Democrats have seen an unexpected decline in support, dropping three percentage points from the 2022 general election, from 20.5 percent to 17.5 percent. This marks the first instance of the far-right party losing voter backing since its entry into parliament in 2010.
Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats maintained the top position with a 28.1 percent share, which is one of their lowest performances in over a century, complicating efforts to form a working majority. While these results diverge from recent far-right gains in other European countries, such as Germany and Italy, the Sweden Democrats continue to be a significant presence in parliament.
The decline in support may be attributed to shifting voter priorities, as noted by Anders Sannerstedt, a political scientist at Lund University, who stated that many voters previously supported the far-right primarily for its stance on refugees, without aligning with its broader policy positions. Despite the reduced vote share, the Sweden Democrats maintain considerable influence. A closely divided legislature presents challenges for any future government, ensuring the party remains a critical player in Swedish politics. Over the past decade, the Sweden Democrats have shifted the political landscape, with their demands for stricter asylum policies and tougher law enforcement being integrated into mainstream political discourse, prompting both the centre-right coalition and the Social Democrats to adjust their positions to align with public sentiment.