Russia Prepares Final Test of New 800 km Ballistic Missile, Analysts Warn of Challenges for Ukraine

<p>Moscow is preparing for a final test of a new ballistic missile capable of striking targets up to 800 kilometers away, which could challenge Ukraine’s air defenses, according to a defense analyst on September 14, 2026.</p><p>Ukrainian military officials indicated that Russia might conduct the test in the coming months, potentially including live-fire strikes. Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU), stated, "According to our estimates, Russia plans to conduct final tests of a new type of ballistic missile with a range of up to 800 km by the end of this year," during a meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Interparliamentary Council, as reported by Ukrainska Pravda.</p><p>Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that if the missile has advanced maneuverability, it would require Ukraine to deploy more sophisticated interceptors. He explained, "This means terminal maneuvers that weave a little bit so that the defender doesn't quite know where it's going or what trajectory it will have."</p><p>Karako also suggested that Russia may have found a way to produce the missile more cheaply or in larger quantities. He highlighted that developments in precision-guided munitions indicate a shift away from unguided weaponry, which could inform the type of missile Russia is preparing to launch.</p><p>Karako elaborated, "Everyone is going for increased maneuverability. Just about every gravity bomb that we have has some kind of terminal guidance for precision." He added that the future may see fewer purely ballistic missiles, with more equipped with maneuvering reentry vehicles or other advanced features.</p><p>According to Ukraine's DIU, Russian forces may attempt to strike targets in western Ukraine during the missile tests as a live-fire demonstration, which Karako described as standard practice during wartime. He stated, "This is a business-as-usual arrangement where you might do lots of developmental testing and then formally field and then have your operational testing."</p><p>The missile would fall into a category that was previously prohibited under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which required the elimination of ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. The United States withdrew from the treaty in 2019, citing alleged Russian violations.</p><p>Karako remarked, "This range is one that was formerly prohibited by the INF Treaty that capped ballistic and cruise missiles at 500 kilometers in range." He noted that Russia appears to be filling that gap, which he considers understandable given the treaty violations.</p><p>Missiles and artillery have played a significant role in Russia's military campaign against Ukraine since the war began in 2022. Ukrainska Pravda reported on August 10 that production of Russia's primary missile types had reached between 110% and 120% of monthly targets. According to the Kyiv Independent, Russia fired at least 1,858 missiles of various types at Ukraine from the start of 2026 through August 27.</p><p>Karako emphasized that the ongoing missile strikes are part of a broader context of demand for various types of standoff capabilities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy highlighted the increasing strain on air defenses, stating in an interview with Deutsche Welle on September 12, "I want to have 100-120 [interceptor missiles] for these difficult months, especially the cold months."</p><p>Karako concluded, "It is the case that Russia really is on a wartime footing, and they really have mobilized their defense industrial base to be cranking these (missiles) out like sausages." He noted that there have been reports suggesting that Russia may be keeping some missiles in reserve.</p><p>Concerns about Russian military actions extend to neighboring countries, with Karako stating, "If you're in Poland, if you're in Romania, if you're in the Baltics, you're worried about the Russians."</p>