Research led by psychologist Matthew Nock forecasts that 75 percent of suicide attempts and 87 percent of suicide-related crises can be predicted a week in advance, which is a significant improvement over existing prediction models. Nock, a leading researcher on suicide, highlights that suicide is the second-leading cause of death for Americans aged 10 to 34, following accidents. He notes that it claims more lives globally each year than war, genocide, and homicide combined. Additionally, 50 percent of individuals who died by suicide saw a clinician in their final month, according to various studies, including Nock's own research.
Nock interprets this statistic as indicative of a gap in the clinical-care system, which often relies on scheduled therapy appointments that may not capture the transient nature of suicidal thoughts. However, he expresses cautious optimism due to findings from a multiyear study involving over 600 high-risk adults and adolescents, which predicted a significant percentage of suicide attempts and crises in the week prior to their occurrence. These findings will be published in the October issue of the Journal of Psychopathology and Clinical Science.
Traditionally, prediction models have focused on long-term forecasts, often relying on self-reported data about past suicide attempts. Nock emphasizes the need to improve understanding of risk factors and the fluctuating nature of suicidal thoughts to enhance support and prevention efforts. He has previously received a MacArthur Foundation “genius” grant for pioneering real-time surveying techniques that demonstrate the variability of suicidal thoughts.
The study involved participants from two groups: adults who had received emergency psychiatric treatment and adolescents aged 12 to 19 treated for suicidal thoughts or behavior. Participants completed surveys via an app, with questions assessing suicidal urges and various emotional states. The study also included a real-time alert system to intervene when high suicidal intent was indicated.
Findings revealed that agitation was a stronger predictor of suicide risk than depression, with an 11 percent increase in the likelihood of a suicide attempt for each additional point of agitation reported. Nock's research aims to develop scalable and reproducible systems for timely intervention, leveraging technology to monitor mood fluctuations and provide support in real-time.
The research was partially supported by federal funding from the National Institute of Mental Health (U01MH116928).