Experts and Iranian state officials have warned that external support for ethnic armed groups is posing an escalating security threat to Iran. Iranian authorities have reported arrests and clashes with small armed cells within the country, as well as skirmishes with armed groups along land borders, particularly during the ongoing conflict with Israel and the United States. The Iranian government has framed the conflict as a national security issue, aiming to convey a message of control and deterrence to both domestic and international audiences.
Recently, state media reported the arrest of an eight-member network allegedly linked to 'anti-revolutionary' and 'pro-monarchy' groups. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) accused those arrested of using Molotov cocktails and burning tires during protests in January. Iranian leaders have expressed concerns about potential protests as public discontent grows due to worsening economic conditions.
During the January protests, many Iranians expressed support for the monarchy, which was overthrown in the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran's last shah, has been a vocal opponent of the current government and called for nationwide strikes and protests. Thousands are believed to have died during the unrest.
Despite some expressions of support for Pahlavi within Iran, there are currently no major organized pro-monarchy armed groups operating in the country. Nationwide demonstrations have primarily focused on economic grievances and repression rather than a push for the monarchy.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed the goal of overthrowing the Iranian state during the early months of the conflict, which began in late February. The Iranian government has reported numerous arrests of individuals it claims support the monarchy, including 111 'monarchist cells' across 26 provinces, as announced by the Intelligence Ministry on March 18.
Iranian authorities view the January protests as a 'coup' orchestrated by armed agents of the U.S. and Israel, including pro-monarchists. The United Nations and international rights organizations have condemned the Iranian government's crackdown on protesters, which has included the execution of dozens of prisoners since the conflict began.
Kurdish fighters near Iran's western borders with Iraq represent the largest non-state armed threat to the country. Various groups, labeled as 'terrorist' organizations by Iranian authorities, have operated from the semiautonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq for years. Iran's military has conducted attacks on these groups' bases in Iraq and sought security agreements with the Iraqi government.
At the start of the current conflict, Kurdish armed groups were considered by the Trump administration to potentially lead a limited ground operation in western Iran, supported by extensive airstrikes from U.S. and Israeli forces. Reports indicated that 5,000-8,000 Iranian Kurdish fighters were preparing for a possible cross-border operation, but the plan did not materialize due to a lack of weaponry and unclear signals from Washington.
In addition to Kurdish forces, Iran's southeastern border areas are home to Baloch separatist fighters. In late August, Iranian security forces reported breaking up a cell belonging to Jaish al-Adl, a prominent Baloch armed group, resulting in one rebel's death and several arrests. Attacks from this group have continued sporadically, sometimes resulting in casualties among police and IRGC personnel.
Iranian authorities have stated their intention to strengthen border control to limit exposure to armed groups during the ongoing conflict. Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, noted that increased external support for Kurdish and Baloch rebel groups could heighten security challenges for the Iranian government. Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Quincy Institute, suggested that while separatist militias do not pose an existential threat, they could become problematic for Tehran if the conflict escalates.
During the January protests, Trump and other U.S. officials expressed support for Iranian protesters, urging them to continue their efforts to overthrow the Islamic Republic. Similar rhetoric has persisted since the conflict began, with Trump discussing the potential for war, sanctions, and a naval blockade to incite internal uprisings in Iran. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that economic pressures could lead to renewed protests or divisions within the IRGC.