WASHINGTON (AP) — In the early days of this election cycle, the U.S. was not engaged in conflict with Iran. The East Wing of the White House was intact, and the Kennedy Center was not facing demolition. Artificial intelligence data centers were not yet a bipartisan topic of discussion. Democratic socialists were primarily on the fringes of political discourse, and the name of Lake Ontario was not under scrutiny.
Since President Donald Trump entered politics over a decade ago, he has consistently influenced the national conversation, making it challenging to keep track of developments. As the midterm elections approach, the political landscape appears particularly unstable, with Trump often at the center of the turmoil.
"Some of these things are out of our control," House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, stated last week when asked if the current political climate could negatively impact his party's election chances.
The political map is also changing, with states like Texas, California, and Florida redrawing congressional districts. Missouri's Republican attorney general is appealing a court ruling that blocked a congressional map supported by Trump.
The economic impact of Trump's tariffs on Canada may increase as the election date approaches. Additionally, his attempts to limit mail-in ballots could introduce uncertainty into the voting process, particularly in states like North Carolina, which is home to a significant U.S. Senate race.
Trump has over $400 million available that could influence the election's outcome. His financial success while in office, including $1.2 billion earned from his cryptocurrency ventures last year, has no recent presidential precedent, according to a federal filing released this summer.
This situation complicates bipartisan efforts in the Senate to advance legislation aimed at strengthening cryptocurrency regulations. Democrats are advocating for more stringent ethics provisions in the bill.
"We've watched this president enrich himself," said Senator Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland, a critical Democratic vote on the legislation, who indicated she would not support it without stronger language.
President Trump recently signed an executive order renaming Lake Ontario as "Lake America."
With numerous changes occurring, both Democrats and Republicans agree that Trump will be a significant factor in the election's concluding phase.
"No. 1, President Trump," Ari Fleischer, former White House press secretary under Republican President George W. Bush, stated when asked to identify the top issues this year.
Representative Suzan DelBene of Washington, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, remarked, "People are feeling the pain from Trump," and anticipates that voters will support candidates who advocate for the American populace against the challenges posed by the current administration and Republican Congress members.
Historically, midterm elections present difficulties for the party of the sitting president as voters seek change. Democrats gained 40 House seats during Trump's last midterm in 2018 and 31 seats during the final election of Bush's presidency in 2006. Conversely, Republicans gained 63 seats in 2010 under Democratic President Barack Obama but flipped fewer than 10 seats in 2022 under President Joe Biden.
This year, shifting numerous seats could be difficult due to partisan redistricting, which has decreased the number of truly competitive races. Nonetheless, a July poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research indicated that only a third of U.S. adults approve of Trump's presidency, a decline from 37% in June and well below the 42% approval rating he had at the start of his term.
Majorities disapprove of his handling of the economy and immigration, both central issues in Trump's 2024 election campaign.
Democrats are optimistic about winning the seats necessary to reclaim control of the House. They may have a chance to flip the Senate if they maintain positions in states like Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire while also winning Republican-held seats in areas such as Maine, Texas, Iowa, or Ohio.
Additionally, the party is focusing on regaining influence outside of Washington, particularly in gubernatorial races in Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada, all currently held by Republicans.
"I'm excited about the map and I am bullish that we are going to pick up several seats," said Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, who is leading the Democratic Governors Association's efforts to win gubernatorial races this year and is a potential 2028 presidential candidate.
Democrats are particularly enthusiastic about Iowa, which has not elected a Democratic governor in two decades. The Democratic Governors Association has allocated $5 million to support Rob Sand, who is gaining national attention for his campaign aimed at reconnecting with rural voters who have shifted away from the party in recent elections.
However, even in a seemingly favorable year, Democrats face obstacles. Beshear acknowledged that Arizona, where incumbent Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs is competing against Republican challenger Andy Biggs, will be a challenging race.
The Republican candidate for governor in Minnesota, Lisa Demuth, indicated she would leverage the anti-incumbent sentiment prevalent in both parties to target her Democratic opponent, Amy Klobuchar, who has spent nearly 20 years in the Senate after serving in local politics.
"She is a 30-year politician," Demuth stated regarding Klobuchar.
After democratic socialists won several primaries this summer, Republicans are eager to associate any Democratic candidates with the far-left faction. Most candidates aligned with democratic socialists are in reliably Democratic districts.
Nonetheless, Fleischer noted that Democrats have sometimes undermined their own chances by promoting such candidates in a few congressional primaries.
Democrats have also fielded democratic socialist candidates in gubernatorial races. However, Beshear, who has established a centrist position ahead of a potential presidential bid, dismissed Republican attempts to label the broader Democratic Party.
"The only person that I see engaged in socialism is Donald J. Trump, who is taking equity in private companies for the United States government," he stated. "That's the definition of socialism."
Concerns persist in many states that the federal government under Trump may attempt to influence elections, which could be a significant variable in the upcoming elections, and some Republicans are cautioning against this.
Governor Mark Gordon of Wyoming, a Republican, recently expressed that the actions of Justice Department officials monitoring poll workers and observing voters were "a bit aggressive" and "irregular."
"I feel very strongly about the federal government coming in and taking our guns," he stated during a meeting to confirm election results in August. "I don't like that. I don't like the federal government coming in and taking our votes, either."
Oklahoma Republican Governor Kevin Stitt, who supports a strict proof-of-citizenship voting bill currently stalled in the Senate, told The Associated Press in July, "I don't think that we should federalize the elections at all. I believe that is a state issue. The states should control their own elections."
Given these concerns, some Democrats, particularly in states crucial to the next presidential campaign, are framing their races in broader terms.
"2028 starts right now," said Aaron Ford, the attorney general in Nevada running for governor. "People across the nation need to understand that Nevada is a swing state; it needs a governor who is going to stand up for the electoral process."