Analysis Shows Low Unemployment for Workers Without College Degrees

A recent analysis from the Burning Glass Institute indicates that unemployment among workers aged 22 to 34 without a college degree has reached a low not seen in two decades. In contrast, those with advanced degrees or STEM backgrounds are experiencing one of their most challenging job markets on record. Historically, both groups have experienced similar job market conditions, but this trend appears to be shifting. Gad Levanon, chief economist at Burning Glass, stated, "There’s a rapidly growing supply of people with a bachelor’s degree, and you have a rapid decline of people who don’t. I don’t think it’s a temporary thing." The analysis attributes this shift to an aging workforce in skilled trades and a slowdown in immigration, alongside a rising number of college graduates entering the market as AI technology automates entry-level tasks. Despite the challenges, the data shows that a college degree still provides advantages in the job market. For instance, prime-age degree holders (ages 25 to 54) reported a 2.7 percent unemployment rate for the year ending in July, compared to 3.6 percent for those with some college education and 4.7 percent for high school graduates. The gap between these groups is narrowing, with blue-collar and hands-on service jobs experiencing historic highs in employment opportunities. Conversely, college-educated individuals in their twenties are facing job market conditions similar to those during the pandemic and the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. The August jobs report highlighted that restaurants and bars added 59,000 jobs, accounting for over a third of the total 162,000 job gains nationwide. However, unemployment figures do not capture the full picture, as many Americans are not actively seeking work due to various reasons, including illness or being in school. This dropout rate varies significantly by education level, with nearly a quarter of young high school diploma holders out of the labor force, compared to about one in seven college graduates, according to data from the Brookings Institution. The future of this trend remains uncertain, with Levanon suggesting that new graduates should remain adaptable in their job search. He advised, "It may be very hard to find a job at top companies, but it’s easier if you’re willing to compromise."