<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><em>This story was originally published by </em><a href="https://www.wired.com/story/2026-supersized-el-nino-impacts-worsen/">WIRED</a> <em>and is reproduced here as part of the </em><a href="http://www.climatedesk.org/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Climate Desk</a> <em>collaboration.</em></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><span class="section-lead">The world’s leading</span> weather organization is issuing a forecast regarding this year’s El Niño, predicting significant impacts.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In an update issued early Thursday, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicted a “nearly 100% likelihood” that the El Niño will last through February. The strong language from the WMO, the UN's weather and climate agency, indicates the historic nature of this El Niño.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">“This is the first time that a WMO El Niño/La Niña Update has been so unequivocal,” the agency stated, noting that this certainty reflects “the strong agreement within WMO’s extensive network.”</p>
<figure class="wp-block-pullquote"><blockquote><p>“This is probably one of the larger, if not the largest, climate events that anybody alive is potentially ever experiencing.”</p></blockquote></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">El Niño is a naturally occurring weather phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific, which disrupts global weather patterns. Scientists have warned since the beginning of the year that a particularly strong El Niño was developing. Current forecasts suggest it will be the strongest on record, with impacts already being observed worldwide and expected to intensify.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated. “The science leaves no room for doubt: The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather.”</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In addition to affecting regional weather, El Niño typically raises the global average temperature by approximately 0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius (0.2 to 0.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by releasing heat into the atmosphere. This year’s El Niño could lead to an even greater increase, making 2026 likely to be the hottest year on record, with 2027 forecasted to be even hotter due to the delayed effects of added heat in the climate system.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This additional warming is concerning when combined with the warming caused by human-induced climate change. The UN warned in a separate report this week that the world is likely to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming in the coming years.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources research network, stated that this El Niño will have significant consequences, which may not be fully understood yet. He cautioned against making definitive predictions about the specific outcomes over the next year, but emphasized that the impacts will likely be substantial.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">“This is probably one of the larger, if not the largest, climate events—aside from long-term warming—that anybody alive is potentially ever experiencing,” he said. “That’s a very big deal. And I think there’s certainly going to be dramatic outcomes from this.”</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">While the El Niño is expected to reach its full strength in the coming months, some impacts have already been observed: the US experienced its hottest summer on record, likely exacerbated by El Niño. Regions typically dry during El Niño have also seen drought conditions emerge. In Sudan, low water levels in the Nile are worsening a prolonged hunger crisis, while Puerto Rico has implemented water rationing due to dry conditions and infrastructure issues. Fisheries in the eastern Pacific have also been disrupted by the warmer waters.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">“The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people,” Guterres said. “We must win that race.”</p>