Analysis of Oil Exits from the Strait of Hormuz Amid U.S. Claims

<p>The White House has differing views from some private sector analysts regarding the volume of oil exiting the Strait of Hormuz, with clarity expected in the coming weeks.</p><p><strong>Importance: </strong>The volume of oil that passes through this waterway influences gasoline prices and other consumer products.</p><hr /><ul><li>The White House is <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/08/28/trump-iran-hormuz-war-oil" target="_blank">reporting success</a> in keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, which previously handled 20 million barrels of crude and oil products daily before the conflict with Iran.</li><li>The final assessment may coincide with the upcoming fall election campaigns.</li></ul><p><strong>Current developments: </strong>President Trump <a href="https://truthsocial.com/%40realDonaldTrump/posts/117206799377569441" target="_blank">stated</a> that 18 million barrels per day are currently being transported, asserting on Truth Social that "Hormuz Volumes are BACK."</p><ul><li>Energy Secretary Chris Wright <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/02/energy-secretary-chris-wright-tells-cnbc-that-more-than-17-million-barrels-of-oil-transited-hormuz-on-monday.html" target="_blank">reported to CNBC</a> that 17 million barrels of crude and products flowed on Monday, although he indicated that the multi-day rolling average is significantly lower.</li></ul><p><strong>Future observations: </strong>More comprehensive data is anticipated, which will clarify recent changes in oil movement.</p><ul><li>Bob McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group, stated via email, "We will know the truth or closer to it in a few weeks. If all that oil came out, it has to go somewhere and eventually it will be recorded."</li></ul><p><strong>Context: </strong>Tracking services have reported lower oil volumes than some claims from the administration in recent weeks.</p><ul><li>However, counting barrels is complex, particularly during wartime. Many tankers are disabling their "automatic identification system" transponders and employing other <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-maneuver-is-boosting-oil-shipments-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-070d8fa3" target="_blank">methods</a> to transport oil.</li><li>This complicates the work for market intelligence firms, which utilize various information sources, including satellite imagery and cargo loading data.</li><li>Information from ports and customs in oil-importing countries, along with their crude stockpile sizes, will supplement outbound data estimates, although it may take weeks for tankers to reach major importers.</li></ul><p><strong>Official statements: </strong>An Energy Department spokesperson stated via email, "In coordination with the U.S. military, the U.S. Department of Energy maintains the best available data related to oil and oil products leaving the Arabian gulf."</p><p><strong>Analysis: </strong>While the 17 million barrels reported by Wright may be plausible for a single day, analysts emphasize the importance of the multi-day average.</p><ul><li>Wright mentioned earlier this week that flows have been averaging around 8 million barrels per day, <a href="https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_holds_above_90_as_fighting_flares-02-sep-2026-184524-article" target="_blank">according to Bloomberg</a>.</li><li>The Energy Department spokesperson informed Axios that nearly 12 million barrels of oil and oil products moved through the strait on Wednesday.</li></ul><p><strong>Expert opinions: </strong>While some analysts express skepticism regarding certain administration claims, there is a general consensus between some private sector trackers and the Energy Department's multi-day average.</p><p><strong>Current situation: </strong>Comparisons of data can be challenging depending on the time period and what is included in the counts.</p><ul><li>Data from Vortexa, a commodity tracking and intelligence firm, indicates a 28-day moving average of approximately 8 million barrels of crude and products as of August 31, according to senior analyst Rohit Rathod.</li><li>Tanker Trackers reported that preliminary data shows crude transit specifically increasing to an average of 5.94 million barrels per day over the past week.</li></ul><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Gregory Brew, an analyst at Eurasia Group, noted that it appears more oil is indeed being transported, although likely not as much as claimed by the Trump administration.</p><ul><li>Brew added via email, "But it's enough to give Trump the idea that time is on his side, and that the US has the upper hand over the Iranians."</li></ul>