Discrepancies in Shipping Data Through the Strait of Hormuz

The United States and Iran have made conflicting claims regarding control of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil shipments. President Donald Trump stated that the US is assisting around 30 ships to cross the strait daily, while ship-tracking data indicates a significantly lower number. The US asserts that the strait is open and that dozens of ships are passing through, with Trump claiming that the US is in 'total control' of the waterway, which is vital for global oil transport. However, Iran maintains that the strait is under its control and is closed to all but pre-approved vessels. Iranian officials have warned that unauthorized ships risk being targeted. Recent US reports suggest an increase in shipping traffic, with two officials stating that 40 commercial ships carrying approximately 18 million barrels of oil passed through the strait under US military escort on a recent Tuesday, marking a potential wartime record. Trump echoed this, asserting that the US Navy was aiding around 30 ships nightly. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimated that at least 10 million barrels were passing through daily, with figures reaching between 15 million and 17 million on one occasion. Prior to the ongoing conflict, an average of 100 ships and 20 million barrels of oil transited the strait each day. However, data from PortWatch indicates that this number has dropped to an average of seven vessels since March. Iran's Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, acknowledged that some ships are managing to pass but emphasized Iranian control over the strait. He accused the US of providing false assurances to vessels attempting to navigate Hormuz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) recently reported that two oil tankers were disabled by mines while trying to cross an unauthorized route. In contrast, Saudi Arabia claimed that an Iranian attack on a Saudi tanker resulted in the deaths of two Filipino sailors. Ship-tracking data from marine analytics firm Kpler shows that only six vessels crossed the strait on a recent Wednesday, with 11 on Tuesday and five on Monday, averaging 13 vessels per day over the past ten days. Lloyd's List Intelligence also reported a similar trend, with an average of around 12 transits per day from late August to early September, although they noted potential data gaps due to ships turning off tracking beacons. The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) reported that commercial traffic through Hormuz remains significantly below normal levels, despite a slight increase. Experts suggest that discrepancies between US claims and ship-tracking data may arise from differences in how vessel transits are counted. The US may include smaller vessels or those under naval protection, while tracking firms typically focus on larger cargo-carrying ships. Both the US and Iran have reasons to exaggerate their influence over the strait amid ongoing tensions. Former US Ambassador Henry Ensher suggested that the current cycle of confrontation may have been triggered by US claims regarding de-mining efforts in the strait.