The number of voters in Germany with an immigrant background is increasing, yet established political parties are struggling to connect with this demographic. According to a study by the Berlin-based German Center for Integration and Migration Research (DeZIM), as of 2023, 12% of eligible voters in Germany, or over seven million people, have an immigrant background, meaning they or at least one of their parents were born without German citizenship. This group is distancing itself from traditional centrist parties.
The study indicates that the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) retains the highest voter potential among immigrants and their descendants, with two out of three voters with an immigrant background considering the SPD a viable option. The center-right Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) follows closely behind, with only one in five respondents categorically rejecting these parties.
Friederike Römer, co-author of the study, noted that older respondents with an immigrant background tend to lean toward the SPD, although this bond appears to be weakening among younger generations.
The anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) has the least appeal among voters with an immigrant background, with nearly two-thirds of those surveyed stating they would not consider voting for the far-right party. This sentiment is particularly strong among individuals with roots in Turkey, the Middle East, and North Africa, although the AfD does have some support within Germany's Russian community.
Martin Gerlach, federal executive director of the Turkish Community in Germany (TGD), highlighted the AfD's efforts to engage immigrant voters, recalling their campaign in Berlin during the 2021 federal election, which included messaging in immigrants' native languages. Gerlach emphasized that political parties need to address safety concerns, which he believes are significant for many in the immigrant community.
Özgür Özvatan, a political scientist, pointed out that by 2030, more than half of Germany's population will have an immigrant background. He criticized established parties for not adequately reaching out to these voters, suggesting that there is potential to mobilize individuals from authoritarian countries who have experience defending democracy. Özvatan advocates for enabling these individuals to obtain citizenship with voting rights quickly.
The AfD is reportedly employing strategies to create divisions among immigrant communities, particularly by suggesting that older immigrants are distinct from newcomers. This tactic appears to resonate with some individuals who do not reject the AfD.
This article has been translated from German.