Analysts indicate that Israel may benefit when the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) mandate expires on December 31, 2026. With the nearly 50-year UN peacekeeping mandate in southern Lebanon set to end, proposals for a European Union mission to partially fill the vacuum have gained attention. Lebanon, currently facing ongoing Israeli bombardment and with approximately 335,000 people displaced, is expected to be discussed during an EU defense and foreign ministers meeting in Ireland this week.
The European External Action Service (EEAS) has circulated a proposal for a three-year military and civilian mission aimed at advising and training the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the Internal Security Forces (ISF), which is Lebanon's police force. This initiative is described by officials as an effort to strengthen the Lebanese state rather than replace UNIFIL.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas expressed in May that while there is a willingness to support the LAF, there may not be sufficient interest in establishing a completely new European mission to take over UNIFIL's responsibilities. UNIFIL was established on March 19, 1978, following Israel's invasion of southern Lebanon, and its mandate has been expanded several times, particularly after the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, when UN Security Council Resolution 1701 added tasks of monitoring the ceasefire and supporting the LAF’s deployment.
However, UNIFIL has not been granted the authority to enforce its mandates, which include compelling an Israeli withdrawal or disarming armed groups. Israel has largely influenced the end of UNIFIL, citing its failure to prevent Hezbollah's military build-up along the Israel-Lebanon border.
Raymond Murphy, a professor at the Irish Centre for Human Rights, noted that a new European force is unlikely to be tasked with enforcing an Israeli withdrawal or disarming Hezbollah. Instead, its role would likely focus on monitoring, with the capacity to use military force for self-protection and to carry out its mandate.
The UN is also considering its own succession planning, with one proposal suggesting a residual role for the UN Truce Supervision Organisation. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres presented three options to the Security Council in June, with troop numbers ranging from 900 to 3,000, compared to UNIFIL’s approximately 7,000.
Lebanese political scientist Imad Salamey warned that the risk of a temporary vacuum is significant, as it could allow Israel to pursue arrangements that compel the LAF to coordinate more directly with Israeli forces, potentially altering the established international monitoring framework.
Murphy expressed skepticism that a European force would change Israel's position or lead to a withdrawal, complicating the deployment of any European mission. He noted that Israel and Lebanon had agreed on a framework in late June to establish pilot zones for Israeli withdrawal and LAF deployment, but talks in Rome in August did not reach an agreement on expanding this model.
The success of any European mission would depend on a comprehensive political agreement and an acceptable mandate for both sides. Without such commitments and enforcement mechanisms, replacing UNIFIL with a European mission could replicate the challenges faced by UNIFIL, according to Salamey.