Polymarket has withdrawn a prediction market regarding whether Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will play in Week 1 against the Denver Broncos. The market, titled "Will Patrick Mahomes participate in the Kansas City Chiefs’ Week 1 regular-season game?" was self-certified by the company on August 25. A source from Polymarket informed ESPN that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) requested the removal of contracts involving NFL players' availability. The market was removed immediately, and discussions with the CFTC are ongoing regarding Polymarket's offerings.
The NFL has also urged the CFTC to prohibit markets related to player injuries, officiating, or events that could be subject to manipulation. Although Mahomes has participated fully in training camp, the league considers the market injury-related due to his recovery from a season-ending knee injury sustained last year. The concern centers on individuals with inside information potentially trading on or selling information not available to the public. NFL executive vice president Jeff Miller stated, "We hope to get to the place where we have a very efficient system someday if they’re legalized in that same way that we can protect the integrity of the competition perfectly," as reported by ESPN.
Despite the CFTC's intervention, Kalshi continued to offer a market on whether Mahomes will start in the season opener against Denver, along with other contracts involving injured players' returns. Other major sports leagues, including MLB and NHL, have partnered with prediction market platforms, but the NFL is not currently considering a commercial relationship. The league recently announced new partnerships with sportsbooks DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics. This situation arises amid increasing legal scrutiny of prediction markets regarding whether sports contracts are classified as gambling or financial products. A federal appeals court in San Francisco ruled against Kalshi on Friday, rejecting its request to resume offering sports and political markets without a state gambling license.