George Santos permanently banned from prediction market Kalshi

Kalshi, a prediction-market operator, has permanently banned former US congressman George Santos from trading on its platform. The company alleged that Santos, who was expelled from Congress due to fraud and identity-theft charges, placed bets in February regarding his own attendance at President Donald Trump's State of the Union address, according to a notice of disciplinary action. Kalshi stated that its compliance team concluded his activity exhibited signs of insider dealing, leading to the lifetime ban, and emphasized that it acted independently without waiting for external enforcement action. Santos expressed his gratitude for the ban on X, stating, "Let's see how much longer you guys are around for." The BBC has reached out to Santos for comment. In 2025, Trump ordered the release of Santos, who had been sentenced to a seven-year prison term for wire fraud and identity theft but served only three months. In July, Santos agreed to pay $35,000 to settle a federal investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regarding his State of the Union trades. Kalshi claimed that Santos used non-public information to place bets and issued a penalty of $71,356 (£38,000). The disciplinary actions occur as prediction markets, which allow users to wager on various outcomes, face increased scrutiny. Both Kalshi and competitor Polymarket have noted a rise in unusual trading patterns, prompting platforms to enhance monitoring systems and respond more decisively to potential misconduct. Kalshi reported that Santos's case was referred to federal authorities earlier this summer after internal systems flagged suspicious behavior linked to his account. The case focused on his trades in a market related to whether he would attend Trump's address, an event he could directly influence. The compliance team found that he placed a series of significant bets between February 2 and 25, some based on false or misleading public statements about his plans, which affected contract prices and resulted in earnings of $17,839.57 from the trades. Santos has denied wrongdoing in various matters but has admitted to stealing the identities of nearly a dozen individuals, including next of kin. He pleaded guilty to wire fraud and aggravated identity theft and served three months in prison before Trump commuted his sentence last year. Santos embellished many aspects of his biography during his campaign for Congress in 2022 and was only the sixth person in US history to be expelled from Congress. The Kalshi incident highlights the increasing compliance challenges facing prediction markets as they gain more users and approach mainstream acceptance. Regulators have indicated that platforms will be expected to adhere to higher standards as the industry evolves, particularly concerning political or economic events.