Iceland is holding a referendum on Saturday to determine whether to restart negotiations for European Union membership, more than a decade after pausing such talks. The decision comes amid economic challenges and heightened security concerns, particularly in light of Russia’s actions in Ukraine and the geopolitical situation in the Arctic.
The last EU accession talks were halted in 2013 under a Eurosceptic government, which believed Iceland would be better off outside the EU. Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir, whose Social Democrats party supports EU membership, stated she will respect the public's decision. A 'yes' vote would initiate years of negotiations with Brussels, followed by a second referendum to decide on formal membership.
Recent polls indicate a divided public, with a Gallup survey showing 51.6% against and 48.4% in favor of new EU membership talks, while another poll by Maskina showed 51.3% support for the talks.
Experts highlight that Iceland’s lack of armed forces makes it reliant on NATO and the US for security, and the unpredictability of US foreign policy has led to increased interest in EU membership for additional security guarantees.
Potential benefits of EU membership include reduced inflation, a more stable currency, and fewer customs barriers. However, the debate remains polarized, with opponents expressing concerns about losing control over domestic policies, particularly regarding the fishing industry, which is vital to the economy.
Iceland's fishing sector fears that EU membership would impose new quotas and increase foreign competition. The fishing industry contributed about 8% to the GDP in 2024.
Analysts note that growing security pressures in the Arctic and uncertainty about US commitments are driving Iceland's renewed interest in the EU. Iceland's Foreign Minister Thorgerdur Gunnarsdottir has emphasized that EU membership would enhance Iceland's security, even as NATO and the US remain primary partners.
The outcome of the referendum could have significant implications for Iceland's future, both economically and in terms of national security.