Voters in Guinea-Bissau will decide on August 30 whether to approve a new constitution that would significantly strengthen the presidency and reshape the country’s electoral system. The vote follows a military coup that occurred nine months prior, which resulted in General Horta Inta-A Na Man being installed as the transitional president. This referendum is set to take place just over three months before presidential and legislative elections scheduled for December 6.
Supporters of the reform argue that it would provide clearer lines of authority and help address years of political instability and disputes between state institutions. However, critics contend that it would concentrate too much power in the presidency and have raised concerns about the process through which the draft was produced.
The African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), one of the main opposition parties, has rejected the referendum and called for a boycott. The referendum will determine whether the constitution approved by the National Transitional Council (CNT) enters into force, providing a framework for the country’s return to elected government.
The process began after the military coup on November 26, 2025, which occurred just days after presidential and legislative elections were held. The military seized power one day before the electoral commission was scheduled to announce the presidential results. Horta, who was the army chief of staff at the time, became the transitional president.
The transition charter established the CNT, which was given legislative powers during the transition. The CNT approved the proposed constitutional text on January 13, 2026. Under the existing constitution, Guinea-Bissau operates a semi-presidential system where executive authority is shared between the president and prime minister.
The proposed constitution would alter this system, granting the president significantly greater executive authority and reducing the prime minister’s role. The president would have greater control over the government, including the appointment and dismissal of the prime minister and members of the government. Additionally, the president would chair the Council of Ministers and have the power to create or abolish ministries.
The proposed changes would reduce the number of parliamentary seats from 102 to 65 and cut the number of electoral constituencies from 29 to 12. New requirements for presidential candidates would include a permanent residency in Guinea-Bissau for the five years preceding an election and a deposit of 50 million West African CFA francs (approximately $90,000). Political parties sponsoring presidential candidates would need at least 5,000 members, including at least 300 in each region.
The proposed constitution would also establish a Constitutional Court. Supporters argue that giving the president clearer authority could reduce institutional conflicts and improve decision-making. Critics, however, fear that concentrating executive authority in the presidency would weaken parliament and other checks on government, significantly altering the balance between the executive and legislature. Concerns have also been raised about the reduction in electoral constituencies, which could affect political representation and weaken parties reliant on local support.
The financial and membership requirements have drawn criticism for potentially making it harder for smaller political movements to contest presidential elections. There is also contention over the process of how the constitution was drafted, as it was prepared during a military-led transition rather than by a restored elected parliament. Opposition parties and civil society groups have criticized the drafting process for lacking inclusivity.
Horta has led the transition since the coup, but the referendum is not solely a vote on his political future. The transition framework bars the transitional president and prime minister from running in the upcoming elections. The immediate issue is what powers the next elected president will have. If the constitution passes, the president elected in December would have considerably greater authority than under the existing system.
The referendum precedes the presidential and legislative elections scheduled for December 6, meaning voters will decide on the proposed constitutional framework before selecting the leaders expected to govern under it. This raises questions about whether a military-led authority should determine fundamental political rules before elected institutions are restored.
A yes vote would bring the proposed constitution into force, including stronger presidential powers, a smaller parliament, fewer electoral constituencies, and new requirements for presidential candidates. A no vote would reject the proposed constitution, leaving the question of constitutional reform unresolved. The outcome will determine not only whether Guinea-Bissau adopts a new constitution but also how much power the presidency should hold when the country returns to elected government.