<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on Friday that the federal government's estimate of total payroll jobs is likely to be revised down by 79,000.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This preliminary notice indicates that the labor market may be weaker than previously thought. The revision could impact economic approval ratings for President Donald Trump, which have declined in recent months amid high inflation and modest job growth numbers.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The number of private-sector jobs is expected to be revised down by 178,000, according to the BLS.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The announcement is a preview of the annual “benchmark” revision to payroll job estimates, which will be released in February. This benchmark revision differs from the regular monthly revisions included in the jobs reports.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The BLS adjusts payroll job estimates based on a monthly survey of establishments, rebenchmarking these numbers against a comprehensive count from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which covers over 95% of U.S. jobs.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Recent years have seen significant revisions due to two main factors: a drop in response rates, partly due to the pandemic, and distortions caused by the influx of illegal immigrants during former President Joe Biden’s administration. While illegal immigrant workers may be included in the establishment survey, they are not counted in the QCEW.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Last year, Trump dismissed BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer following a weak jobs report that revealed major downward revisions, labeling it “rigged.” Trump appointee Brett Matsumoto took over at the bureau earlier this month.</p>