North Carolina Senate Race: Roy Cooper's Campaign Strategy

<p>Last summer, North Carolina’s race for U.S. Senate was expected to be among the most exciting in the 2026 cycle. Thom Tillis, a Republican, had opted not to run for reelection. Donald Trump had recruited Michael Whatley, the former head of the Republican National Committee, to stand in his place. Roy Cooper, a former two-term governor, seemed like Democrats’ best and only hope to make the race competitive in a state Trump had won three times—and where no Democrat has won a Senate race since 2008.</p><p>Today, other contests are attracting more attention, and North Carolina has been less competitive than anticipated. Whatley, a first-time candidate, has struggled to gain traction, and Cooper has shifted from being seen as the last hope to a strong favorite. Cooper’s team isn’t declaring victory yet. “This is going to be a two-to-three-point race at the end of the day,” his longtime strategist, Morgan Jackson, stated. “We know that it’s a 50–50 state and you win or lose on the margins.” However, most forecasters rate the race as leaning toward a Cooper win.</p><p>As the Democratic Party works to define its identity in the Trump era, Cooper’s success in a purple state has garnered significant attention. National press coverage has described Cooper’s campaign as “boring” and “normal.” This lack of intrigue comes as a relief to a party dealing with drama and outrage in many other races. Cooper hasn’t taken controversial political stands like Michigan’s Abdul el-Sayed has, and he doesn’t have the personal scandals of the former Maine candidate Graham Platner. Republican voters also haven’t found ways to label him as unusual like they have with Texas’s James Talarico.</p><p>While it is natural for Democrats to want to emulate Cooper’s success, some skepticism exists regarding the transferability of his strategies. When asked if Cooper was boring, Jackson did not dispute the notion, stating, “He’s a workhorse; he’s not a show horse. He’s a steady hand. So voters don’t see him out there as a lightning rod.”</p><p>Cooper’s primary asset is his long relationship with North Carolina voters. He entered statewide elected office in the waning days of the Bill Clinton presidency, a tenure that ended in January 2025 after two terms as governor. This means that any Republican candidate will struggle to define Cooper in their own terms.</p><p>This longevity is also a product of Cooper’s cautious approach. Almost from the moment he became attorney general in 2001, he was expected to someday run for senator or governor. However, he did not actually do so until 2016, when he narrowly won against incumbent Republican Governor Pat McCrory by a little more than 10,000 votes. He waited to enter the Senate race until shortly after Tillis’s retirement announcement, which likely discouraged more formidable Republican challengers than Whatley. He also selected a favorable cycle for Democrats nationally.</p><p>Cooper’s caution and affability should not be mistaken for weakness. Chris Cooper, a political scientist at Western Carolina University, humorously compared Roy Cooper to Mister Rogers, suggesting he has a more complex persona. Andrew Dunn, a North Carolina writer and Republican operative, offered a less favorable view, stating, “Roy Cooper has carefully cultivated a public persona as your friendly, easygoing grandpa who wears sweaters and talks quietly. That is far from his private persona. He is incredibly opportunistic and calculating.”</p><p>As governor, Cooper employed various strategies to promote his agenda. He engaged in a prolonged struggle against the Republicans who controlled the state legislature over Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act. GOP leaders initially opposed it, but Cooper successfully passed the expansion in 2023, his penultimate year in office. He also utilized his veto power more frequently than any previous governor. (North Carolina was the last state to grant its governor veto power, doing so in 1997 through legislation championed by a young state senator named Roy Cooper.)</p><p>After Republicans overrode some of Cooper’s vetoes, he led a campaign to break their supermajority and supported a successful primary challenge against a Democratic lawmaker who had occasionally voted with the GOP. When Cooper was succeeded in 2025 by fellow Democrat Josh Stein, Raleigh Republicans expressed relief at being able to deal with someone they perceived as more agreeable.</p><p>Contending with a unified Republican general assembly limited Cooper on policy, but it may have also benefited him politically. Because Democrats have spent the past 15 years trying to counter conservative legislation, the party has had little room for internal conflicts. Consequently, Cooper has avoided the kinds of battles that might have pigeonholed him as a liberal or a moderate. The only Republican governor during that time lasted only one term, partly due to conflicts with GOP lawmakers.</p><p>Some conservatives believe that Cooper receives favorable treatment from the press. This summer, Whatley’s campaign barred journalists from mainstream and left-leaning outlets from events, while Cooper’s campaign turned away staffers from two conservative outlets, but local coverage focused more heavily on Whatley.</p><p>Dunn remains optimistic about Whatley’s chances, drawing parallels to a 1984 race when popular former two-term Democratic Governor Jim Hunt ran against Senator Jesse Helms. “Helms spent millions trying to convince North Carolinians that they didn’t really like Governor Hunt’s record as governor,” Dunn noted. “It didn’t work.” Early polls showed Hunt well ahead, but in the final phase of the campaign, Helms emphasized national issues and won. Dunn contends that Whatley could argue that Cooper will be another vote for the Democratic agenda, regardless of his public image.</p><p>However, Helms benefited from President Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory in 1984; Whatley is a close ally of Trump, who is not on the ballot and is declining in popularity. Jackson believes that voters’ opinions of Cooper are already established. “People see him as a genuine guy,” he stated. “The reality is, Roy Cooper is as authentic as they come.” One argument for his authenticity may be how difficult he is for Democrats to replicate elsewhere.</p>