Analysts indicate that mine clearance alone is unlikely to ensure safety for shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump stated that the US Navy has removed or detonated all sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway in the Gulf that Iran had effectively closed following attacks by the US and Israel nearly six months ago. Trump asserted on his Truth Social platform that any ship or boat laying new mines would face immediate destruction.
However, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi responded that the strait remains closed, despite a temporary transit-route agreement with Oman, and dismissed Trump’s claim regarding mine clearance. Gharibabadi stated, "No one except Iran knows the location of these mines," and characterized Trump’s comments as an attempt to stabilize markets, warning that US mine-detection vessels could become targets.
In addition to establishing a new transit route, Iran and Oman have agreed to collaborate on a project to clear mines from the strait. Prior to the conflict, around 130 ships passed through the strait daily, transporting approximately 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas supplies from Gulf producers.
While analysts consider the US assessment of cleared mines credible, they caution that it does not guarantee that the strait is entirely mine-free or that commercial shipping can return to pre-war levels. Some uncharted mines may still exist outside monitored shipping lanes, and Iran retains the capability to deploy additional mines. Experts also noted that mines are just one aspect of the threats vessels face in the strait. With no ceasefire in place and the US imposing sanctions on Iran, the potential for renewed conflict remains.
The uncertainty surrounding shipping safety has financial implications. A report by S&P Global in July indicated that war-risk insurance costs for ships in the area have increased from 1-3% of a ship’s hull value to 7.5-10%. Experts predict that these high premiums will persist, discouraging shipping companies from using the Strait of Hormuz.
Following the outbreak of war in late February, Iran’s National Defence Council warned that any attacks on Iranian territories would lead to the mining of the Strait of Hormuz. Evidence soon surfaced that mines had been deployed, although Iran has not confirmed this. Oman’s Maritime Security Centre issued a warning to shipping operators after a suspected floating mine was sighted.
On June 11, Germany’s navy reported that mines had been detected at four locations around the strait, based on information from US and British navies. The UK, France, and Germany subsequently deployed warships and mine-countermeasure assets to the region.
Analysis from the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) indicates that while modern mines can be costly to produce, they can disrupt shipping at a relatively low expense. Concerns about even a single mine in a shipping lane can halt traffic. Estimates suggest Iran has a stockpile of 2,000 to 6,000 mines, many of which are domestically manufactured.
Scott Savitz, a senior engineer at RAND, noted that Iran possesses both traditional moored mines and more advanced types. Moored contact mines detonate upon contact, while influence mines, which sit on the seabed, activate based on a ship's magnetic or acoustic signature.
Following Trump’s declaration of mine clearance, the Joint Maritime Information Center reported ongoing risks from drifting or uncharted mines. The UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre also noted active mine-danger areas.
Mark Hilborne, a senior lecturer at King’s College, London, expressed confidence in the US assessment, stating that the claim originated from CENTCOM. He acknowledged that while the US Navy has detonated numerous mines, this does not guarantee that all mines have been removed. Hilborne indicated that there may still be loose or 'ghost' mines in the area.
Mine clearance, known as mine countermeasures (MCM), is a complex and hazardous process. The FPRI highlighted that years of neglect have weakened the US Navy’s mine-countermeasure capabilities. The last four Avenger-class MCM ships in Bahrain were decommissioned in September, and MH-53E Sea Dragon helicopters, essential for airborne minesweeping, were phased out in August.
The US has since relied on a combination of warships and unmanned systems for operations in Hormuz, with two guided-missile destroyers entering the strait as clearance efforts began in April.
The removal of mines from shipping lanes only partially addresses the challenges faced by shipping operators and insurers. A supertanker and its cargo can be valued at around $300 million, leading underwriters and oil companies to seek substantial evidence of safety before resuming operations. Hilborne noted that insurance premiums are unlikely to decrease until a prolonged period of calm is established.
Despite the challenges, there are indications that the shipping industry is adapting. Alex Almeida, an analyst at Ambrey, reported that risk aversion among shipping operators is easing as alternative arrangements are developed. For instance, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co’s trading arm is reportedly offering to transport Iraqi oil through the Strait of Hormuz using vessels with turned-off transponders, transferring cargoes to other ships outside the Gulf.
Almeida remarked that this shuttle service reduces insurance risks for shippers, while Saudi Arabia is also moving towards ship-to-ship transfers and introducing a government-backed insurance scheme.
These new arrangements may present challenges for Iran, especially as US economic pressure increases. Almeida suggested that Iran may seek other means to alter the balance of power, potentially targeting ship-to-ship transfer areas within range of its missiles and drones.
Ultimately, mine clearance does not guarantee safety in the Strait of Hormuz. Almeida emphasized that mines are not the primary threat; rather, the greater danger comes from drones and anti-ship missiles launched from Iran. Although attacks have decreased, the ongoing confrontation between the US and Iran remains unresolved, leaving shipowners and insurers to consider the possibility of renewed conflict in the region.