Sudan's Army Gains May Lead to Fragmentation of Conflict

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have made significant territorial gains over the summer, recapturing towns along the Export Road, which connects the central Nile valley to the west, and pushing the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) into a defensive position. SAF leaders are now expressing confidence in the possibility of defeating the RSF entirely. However, in the eastern Blue Nile state, the RSF and its ally, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North, have retaken key locations, indicating that the situation is complex. Military victories do not necessarily equate to political resolutions, and a complete defeat of the RSF may lead to a fragmentation of the conflict into smaller disputes rather than an end to the war. The anti-RSF coalition is led by the SAF but relies on various allied armed movements, including factions from Darfur that signed the 2020 Juba Peace Agreement. These groups have been hesitant to fully integrate into the military, maintaining their autonomy. Previous promises to address the proliferation of armed groups have seen little progress. The RSF is also facing internal fragmentation, with several senior figures defecting, which poses challenges for the SAF. The dynamics within the anti-RSF coalition reveal that many commanders operate with significant independence, which could lead to conflicts once the common enemy is removed. Additionally, Islamist brigades that supported the SAF have begun to withdraw, but their political ambitions remain. The SAF chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, has initiated a national dialogue aimed at addressing these issues, but the broader challenges of integrating armed groups and maintaining control over the peripheries of the country persist. The SAF's historical difficulties in projecting power in regions like Darfur raise questions about its ability to maintain stability, even if the RSF is defeated. The ongoing conflict may continue to evolve, with new power dynamics emerging in the aftermath.