U.S. to Focus on Sanctions Rather Than Strikes Against Iran, Says Rubio

<p>Secretary of State Marco Rubio has informed several foreign counterparts that the U.S. is not expected to initiate new strikes against Iran "for the time being," according to a U.S. official and another source familiar with the discussions.</p><ul><li>Rubio indicated that the focus will shift to other forms of pressure, including a sanctions initiative announced recently.</li></ul><p><strong>Why it matters: </strong>Rubio's communication to foreign ministers from allied countries comes as the U.S. believes it is effectively applying pressure on Iran through a naval blockade while increasing oil transport out of the Strait of Hormuz.</p><ul><li>This also reflects President Donald Trump's desire to conclude military actions, at least temporarily.</li></ul><hr /><ul><li>The U.S. official noted that while Rubio emphasized that the U.S. is not planning to return to major combat operations, he did not rule out strikes if Iran initiates an attack.</li><li>Another U.S. official stated that the U.S. Navy's clearing of mines from the Strait of Hormuz represents a significant shift in the conflict, diminishing one of Iran's primary sources of leverage.</li></ul><p><strong>Behind the scenes: </strong>Sources indicated that Rubio outlined the Trump administration's current Iran policy during phone calls with several counterparts:</p><ul><li>Avoiding military action against Iran for the foreseeable future.</li><li>Increasing economic pressure on Iran through the U.S. naval blockade and new Treasury Department sanctions.</li><li>Maximizing oil transport through the strait to global energy markets.</li><li>A second U.S. official mentioned that this approach is expected to continue at least until after the midterm elections, when military options may be reconsidered.</li></ul><p><strong>State of play:</strong>U.S. officials report that the clearing of mines from most of the Strait of Hormuz, along with an increase in tanker traffic through the southern lane of the strait, has significantly reduced Iran's influence over global energy markets.</p><ul><li>One U.S. official stated, "The Iranians have lost control over the strait. Now the U.S. controls it."</li><li>The U.S. naval blockade is reportedly limiting Iran's critical revenue sources, with few tankers observed at Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub, in recent weeks.</li><li>State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott stated, "The Iranian economy is in free fall and the regime's military has been decimated," adding that the U.S. is cutting off financial resources available to the regime.</li><li>Pigott also noted, "The President has been clear that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, and that he will use the tools necessary to ensure that objective is accomplished." </li></ul><p><strong>The big picture:</strong>Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan's army chief, visited Tehran for discussions with Iranian leaders. Pakistan has served as a mediator between the U.S. and Iran since the conflict began.</p><ul><li>According to Al Arabiya, Munir spoke with Trump prior to the trip and proposed a new initiative for the Iranians.</li><li>The White House confirmed that Trump spoke to Munir but stated that there are no ongoing or planned negotiations with Iran.</li><li>U.S. officials assert that recent developments in the strait and the increased oil flow from the Gulf have weakened Iran's position in any future negotiations, rendering a potential deal between Oman and Iran regarding the strait irrelevant.</li><li>One U.S. official stated, "Right now we are not negotiating with Iran. We are squeezing them. The pressure could drive the Iranians back to the table."</li></ul><p><strong>What to watch:</strong>White House envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who have been leading negotiations with Iran, are scheduled to visit U.S. Central Command on Wednesday for briefings on the current situation.</p>