Prediction Markets Show Confidence in Darline Graham Ahead of South Carolina Senate Runoff

<figure><img alt="Senator Darline Graham participated in a televised debate ahead of the Republican primary runoff in Newberry SC, United States on August 18, 2026." src="https://thedailybeast-thedailybeast-prod.web.arc-cdn.net/resizer/v2/U4GGEP2LCJGRDAMTIDNMGP56LY.jpg?auth=ca8388895c47a5f7b7a65d81d41f1eb112923fb8adbeb82e6d2ce1761e39142a&amp;smart=true&amp;width=6469&amp;height=3639" /><figcaption>Peter Zay/Anadolu via Getty Images</figcaption></figure><p>Prediction markets and political polling show differing views on the South Carolina Republican Senate runoff. Polls indicate that Darline Graham, sister of the late Lindsey Graham, is either trailing or in a close race with Ralph Norman. However, as of Tuesday afternoon, Kalshi gives Graham a 70 percent chance of winning, an increase from 67 percent the previous night.</p><p>Similarly, Polymarket assigns Graham a 65 percent chance of winning the runoff. In contrast, a Trafalgar Group poll released late Monday shows Graham and Norman tied at 48 percent each, with four percent of likely voters undecided. This poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percent.</p><p>Another survey shared with NOTUS, conducted by pollsters who support Norman, suggests he has a high-single-digit lead over Graham, although details on the sample size were not disclosed. The lack of neutral polling has led some Republicans to rely on subjective impressions, with Kalshi indicating a favorable outlook for Graham despite her recent debate performance, where she acknowledged, "National security is not my thing." This statement followed a moment in which she struggled to address questions about Taiwan and the South China Sea, receiving boos from some audience members.</p><p>Graham admitted to being "not that informed on national security," contrasting with her brother's reputation as a national security advocate during his 23 years in the Senate. President Donald Trump has endorsed Graham and actively campaigned for her, with his MAGA Inc. super PAC contributing $827,000 to support her campaign.</p><p><a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/bettors-buck-the-polls-with-shock-darline-graham-prediction/">Read more at The Daily Beast.</a></p>